EU’s shiny new defense commissioner post turns into a ‘Plan B job’

BRUSSELS — When Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed creating the new post of defense commissioner to oversee the bloc’s rearmament, it was supposed to be a coveted job.
That’s not turning out to be the case.
With all EU countries having now proposed candidates for the new Commission, von der Leyen is embarking on the task of figuring out who gets what post — and so far there are few obvious takers for the defense commissioner job.
Only a handful of countries — largely from the Baltic region and the Nordics — appear interested, diplomats told POLITICO. “It seems it has become a plan B job for the Baltics,” said a diplomat who, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to speak about the issue.
One reason is that the scope of the new job and the resources that will be available remain unclear. To be meaningful, the defense post will have to grab powers from existing portfolios like internal market, competition, economy, transport and others, a process likely to trigger a turf war among commissioners.
The lack of clarity is making big countries hesitate over pushing for the defense portfolio.
“In this scenario it is too risky for the big ones” like France, one of the diplomats said.
Until June, the current internal market commissioner, Thierry Breton, was seen as someone who might make the leap.
That was because Breton had been involved in key defense issues like the European Defence Investment Programme (EDIP), a cash pot aimed at boosting joint weapons procurement and putting the EU on more of a war footing by ramping up domestic arms and ammunition production. He was also responsible for the new Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space led by Finland’s Timo Pesonen.
But Breton’s name has now been dropped, three diplomats said.
Poland — the biggest military spender in NATO in terms of GDP — also initially seemed interested. But Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski shot down the suggestion that he wanted the job.
Warsaw has nominated Piotr Serafin, Poland’s acting EU ambassador and an old Brussels hand, as its choice for commissioner. But Poland is aiming at a budget portfolio for him, making Serafin an unlikely — although not impossible — candidate for defense, diplomats said.
Other countries in the region are not in the running.
Hungary and Slovakia are out because they are seen as pro-Russia. The Czech Republic, a key defense player with its initiative to provide Ukraine with 500,000 artillery shells, wants an economic portfolio.
The Baltic countries are keener, although some would prefer that defense be added to an existing portfolio.
Latvia’s Defense Minister Andris Sprūds told POLITICO that Valdis Dombrovskis, who served as executive vice president and trade commissioner in the outgoing European Commission, is a strong candidate for the job.
“I think that with all of his experience, he would be able to fill any shoes necessary,” Sprūds said, but added the decision is up to von der Leyen.
Lithuania is also interested, diplomats said. Vilnius’ first choice is enlargement, but its Commission candidate, former PM Andrius Kubilius, has a record of being an ardent supporter of Ukraine as well as a Russia hawk. 
“Both EU enlargement and defense are areas that are very close to us,” Asta Skaisgiritė, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda’s chief foreign policy adviser, said on Tuesday.
Naming a Baltic candidate to defense does create a potential issue of balance, as former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has already been appointed the EU’s top diplomat. That would mean the Baltics ran all defense files, as Kallas is in charge of dossiers like the European Peace Facility, which helps fund weapons for Ukraine, as well as the bloc’s overseas military missions.
Still, other countries might let that pass. One Western European diplomat said the option of a Baltic candidate getting defense is “perhaps problematic but feasible.”
Finland, another pro-Ukraine country that is highly skeptical of Russia, has indicated that its nominee, MEP Henna Virkkunen, would prefer competitiveness, as Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told POLITICO in March. It would not refuse defense, however, diplomats said.
Giving the job to a smaller member country does have advantages, the diplomats explained, as the defense commissioner would be less prone to suspicion of trying to use EU money to bolster their own defense industries.